What this shows
The Puell Multiple, created by David Puell in 2019, measures how much Bitcoin miners earn today compared with the past year:
Puell Multiple = dollar value of the bitcoin mined today ÷ its 365-day average
Miners are the one group that must sell regularly: they pay for electricity and machines in dollars. When their income is far below its yearly average, miners are under stress, the weakest switch off, and the supply they bring to the market shrinks. When income is far above average, miners have plenty to sell, often into a rising market.
Like the original, we count only newly issued coins (the block subsidy), not transaction fees. Fees are usually a small share of miner income, shown in the cards above, and leaving them out keeps every era comparable. Blocks per day are from mempool.space and prices from Bitstamp daily closes.
Zones
- Below 0.5, low: miners earn less than half their yearly average. This matched the lows of 2015, 2018 and 2022.
- 0.5 to 1, below average
- 1 to 4, above average
- Above 4, high: the zone of the 2013 and 2017 tops.
Halvings move the multiple on their own. Every four years the block subsidy halves overnight, so the multiple drops sharply while the yearly average catches up. Readings in the year after a halving look low partly for that reason.
What the record shows
- High readings came before weak years. Days above 4 were followed by large losses over the next 90 days and the next year. There were few such episodes, and none since 2017.
- Low readings marked cycle lows, but not quick rebounds. Bitcoin was nearly always higher a year after a reading below 0.5, but over the next 90 days it did no better than an average day. Bottoms took time.
- Peaks keep falling: about 10 in 2013, 6 in 2017, 3.4 in 2021 and lower still in the current cycle. As with the MVRV Z-Score, fixed top levels from early cycles have stopped being reached.
The Puell Multiple is one of the cycle signals in our market outlook. For the cost side of mining, see the Bitcoin mining cost; for whether miners are switching machines off, see Hash Ribbons.
FAQ
What is the Puell Multiple today? The current value and its zone are in the headline and the first card above, updated daily.
What does a low Puell Multiple mean? Miners earn much less than usual, so the least efficient ones shut down and fewer newly mined coins are sold. In the past, readings below 0.5 came near cycle lows.
Does the Puell Multiple include transaction fees? No. Like the original indicator, it counts only newly issued bitcoin. Fees are shown separately above; they have usually been a small part of miner income.
Why did the Puell Multiple drop sharply in 2024? The April 2024 halving cut the block subsidy from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. Daily issuance halved overnight, while the yearly average fell only gradually, so the multiple dropped.