What this shows
The 200-week moving average is the average Bitcoin closing price over the last 200 weeks, about four years. That is roughly one full halving cycle, so the line smooths out an entire boom and bust. We compute it from daily Bitstamp closes (1,400 days), which gives the same line as averaging weekly closes but updates every day.
The ratio in the top row tells you how stretched the price is: 1.00× means BTC trades exactly at its four-year average, 2.00× means twice that.
Why traders watch it
For most of Bitcoin's history the 200-week MA has acted as a floor in bear markets. Prices fell to it or briefly through it near the cycle lows of 2015, March 2020 and 2022, and long-term buyers treat time near the line as a historically cheap zone. Because the average moves slowly, the line itself has kept rising through every cycle.
Where the "floor" didn't hold
The table above lists every stretch of a week or more below the line. Two lessons from it:
- It is a zone, not a hard floor. After the FTX collapse BTC spent about seven months below the average, from August 2022 to March 2023, at one point more than 30% under it.
- Breaking below is not a buy signal on its own. In 2022 the first drop below the line was followed by further losses before the bottom. Some of the time below the line has been an opportunity in hindsight, but you couldn't know when the bottom was while it was happening.
How to use it
- Use the ratio as a measure of how far price has run from its long-term trend. High multiples have historically come near cycle tops, but the peak multiple has fallen each cycle as Bitcoin matured.
- Treat trading near or below the line as a sign that long-term holders are historically being paid to be patient, not as a guarantee of the low.
- Combine it with the power-law model, the Pi Cycle Top indicator and the mining cost, which approach the same question from different angles.
FAQ
What is the Bitcoin 200-week moving average today? The live value is in the headline and the first card above. It is recalculated daily from Bitstamp closing prices.
Has Bitcoin ever closed below the 200-week moving average? Yes, several times: in 2015, briefly in March 2020, for about seven months in 2022–2023, and again for short periods in 2023 and 2026. The table above lists each one with its length and how far below the line price went.
Is the 200-week moving average the bottom of the bear market? It has marked the area of past bear-market lows, but price has fallen through it more than once, by over 30% in 2022. It works better as a zone of historically cheap prices than as an exact bottom.
How is the 200-week moving average calculated? It is the simple average of the last 200 weeks of closing prices. We use the last 1,400 daily closes, which gives an almost identical line that updates every day instead of once a week.