What this shows
The MVRV Z-Score compares Bitcoin's market value with what its holders actually paid for their coins.
- Market cap values every bitcoin at today's price.
- Realized cap values every bitcoin at the price it last moved on the blockchain. Coins that last moved in 2017 count at 2017 prices, coins bought last week at last week's. It approximates the total cost basis of all holders.
- Realized price is realized cap divided by the number of coins: the average price holders paid.
- MVRV ratio is market cap divided by realized cap. Above 1, the average coin is in profit; below 1, at a loss.
- The Z-Score takes the gap between the two caps and divides it by how volatile the market cap has been, so readings from different eras can be compared.
The idea behind it is simple: when the market is worth far more than holders paid, many of them sit on large gains and are tempted to sell. When it is worth less, sellers have mostly given up.
The data is from Coin Metrics' free community API, which computes realized cap from the full blockchain. Each day's Z-Score uses only the history up to that day. Many popular charts use the whole history instead, which quietly changes old readings as new data arrives; their values for past years can differ slightly from ours.
Zones
We use the zones common on public charts:
- Below 0, undervalued: the market cap is under the realized cap. This happened in 2011, 2015, late 2018 and 2022, each time near a cycle low.
- 0 to 3, neutral: most of Bitcoin's history.
- 3 to 7, elevated: strong bull markets.
- Above 7, overheated: the zone of the 2013 and 2017 tops.
What the record shows
- Undervalued readings were followed by strong years. BTC was higher a year later on almost every day the Z-Score was below 0. But those days come from only a few episodes, so the evidence is thinner than the number of days suggests.
- Peaks are getting lower. The Z-Score peaked above 10 in 2013 and 2017, near 7 in early 2021, and under 4 in the current cycle so far. A rule like "sell above 7" would not have triggered in 2021's second peak or in 2024–2025. The market cap has grown huge and volatility has fallen, which compresses the score.
- Lows are getting less deep too, from about −0.6 in 2015 to about −0.4 in 2022.
So the Z-Score is most useful as a reading of where Bitcoin stands against its holders' cost, not as a top signal with a fixed number.
The Z-Score is one of the cycle signals in our market outlook. Compare it with the 200-week moving average and the power-law model, which judge value from price alone.
FAQ
What is the MVRV Z-Score today? The current value and its zone are in the headline and the first card above, updated daily.
What is Bitcoin's realized price? The average price at which all bitcoins last moved on-chain, roughly what holders paid on average. The current figure is in the first row of cards. Bitcoin has traded below it only during deep bear markets.
What does an MVRV below 1 mean? The market values Bitcoin at less than holders paid for it, so the average coin is held at a loss. Every stretch like that is listed in the table above; all of them came near the lows of a bear market.
Is the MVRV Z-Score a reliable top signal? Less than it used to be. It went above 7 at the 2013 and 2017 tops, but peaked lower in 2021 and much lower in the current cycle. Treat high readings as a sign of a heated market rather than a precise sell level.
Why is your MVRV Z-Score different from other charts? Most charts divide by the volatility of the whole history, including later years. We use only the data up to each day, so a past reading shows what was knowable then and never changes.