What this shows
Every indicator on this site answers one narrow question. This page puts ten of them together into a single score from −100 (every signal bearish) to +100 (every signal bullish), and shows how the market behaved in the past at similar readings.
The signals are grouped into four families, and each family counts equally:
- Trend: price against its 200-day average, the 50/200-day "golden cross", and 90-day momentum.
- Cycle and value: the 200-week moving average, the power-law model and Hash Ribbons.
- Sentiment and positioning: the Fear & Greed Index, funding rates and the 14-day RSI.
- Macro: the US dollar index.
Grouping matters because the three trend signals usually agree with each other. Counted separately, they would outvote everything else.
How the score is built
Each signal votes bullish (+1), neutral (0) or bearish (−1) using a simple rule that traders commonly use, shown under each signal above. We did not tune the rules to fit the past: a rule tuned to history always looks good on history. A family's vote is the average of its signals, and the score is the average of the families.
The historical record avoids hindsight where it matters most. The power-law fair value for each past day is fitted only on prices before that month, so it doesn't use information nobody had at the time. Signals with shorter histories (Fear & Greed from 2018, funding from 2020) join the score once their data begins.
What the record shows
- The score has lined up with what came next. Since 2011, higher scores were followed by better Bitcoin returns over both 30 and 90 days, and the order holds since 2020 too. At the strongest bullish readings, Bitcoin was higher 90 days later in the large majority of cases.
- Trend and value did most of the work. Price above its long-term averages, and price cheap against the 200-week average or the power law, were followed by better-than-average months.
- The contrarian rules mostly worked backwards. "Overbought" RSI and "extreme greed" were followed by above-average Bitcoin returns, not below. Bitcoin has been a momentum market: strength tended to continue. Funding is the exception, where crowded longs did tend to be followed by weaker months. We keep the rules as they are and show their record, so you can see this for yourself.
- Strongly bearish readings are rare. Bitcoin's long uptrend means the lowest bucket has almost no history, so it tells us little.
Limits
- The record covers about three full market cycles. The ≈ figures in the tables show how few independent periods sit behind each row.
- Even at the best scores, Bitcoin fell over the next 30 days in a meaningful share of cases. A high score is a tilt in the odds, not a promise.
- The rules are fixed, but we chose them knowing roughly how these indicators behaved. That leaves some room for hindsight, which is why we will start keeping a public log of each day's reading to check it going forward.
This page summarises indicators and history. It is not investment advice.
FAQ
What is the Bitcoin market outlook today? The current score, its label and the four family scores are at the top of the page, updated every six hours. Each signal's reading and vote is listed below them.
Can this predict the Bitcoin price? No. It describes where trend, value, sentiment and macro indicators stand, and how the market behaved after similar readings in the past. Historically, higher scores were followed by better returns on average, but with many exceptions.
Why don't contrarian signals like RSI and Fear & Greed work for Bitcoin? Over Bitcoin's history, strong markets have tended to stay strong for a while. Readings that look "overbought" or "greedy" often came in the middle of rallies rather than at their end. The track record under each signal shows this.
How often is the score updated? Every six hours, after the underlying indicators refresh.