What this shows
Hash Ribbons track stress among Bitcoin miners. The indicator, published by Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments in 2019, compares two moving averages of the network hashrate:
- Capitulation: the 30-day average falls below the 60-day average. Hashrate is shrinking, which means miners are switching machines off because mining has become unprofitable for them.
- Recovery: the 30-day average climbs back above the 60-day one.
- Buy signal: after a recovery, the first day Bitcoin's price momentum turns up too (the 10-day price average above the 20-day average).
The logic is that capitulating miners sell coins to cover costs, and when the weakest have left and hashrate grows again, that selling pressure fades.
Hashrate is from mempool.space, which estimates it each day from the time between blocks. Daily estimates are noisy, so some capitulations in the table last only a few days. We apply the original rule without filtering them out.
What typically causes a capitulation
- Halvings. The block reward is cut in half, so the least efficient machines stop paying for themselves overnight. Capitulations followed the 2016, 2020 and 2024 halvings.
- Price crashes, which squeeze miner revenue the same way, as in late 2018 and late 2022.
- Shocks to mining itself, such as China's mining ban in mid-2021, when a large share of the network went offline for weeks.
Compare this page with the Bitcoin mining cost: when the price nears the cost of mining, capitulation becomes more likely.
How good is the buy signal?
The second table compares the signals with the simplest alternative: buying on any day. Bitcoin rose over most of its history, so almost any entry looks good a year later. The question is whether the signal beat that.
Over the full history it did, modestly: the median return 90 days after a signal has been roughly double that of an average day, and a somewhat larger share of signals were followed by gains. A year out, the difference is smaller.
The record is also uneven. Signals in 2019 and 2020 came before large rallies, while the August 2021 signal was followed by the 2022 bear market, and most signals in 2025 were lower a year later. Treat it as one piece of evidence that miner selling has eased, not as a standalone buy button.
FAQ
What are Bitcoin Hash Ribbons? An indicator of miner capitulation based on two moving averages of the network hashrate, 30 days and 60 days. When the 30-day average is below the 60-day one, miners are switching off machines; when it crosses back above and price momentum turns up, the indicator gives a buy signal.
Are Bitcoin miners capitulating right now? The current status and how long it has lasted are in the headline and the first card above, updated daily.
How accurate is the Hash Ribbons buy signal? Over Bitcoin's history, BTC has on average done better in the 90 days after a signal than after a random day, but not every time: several signals, including August 2021 and most of those in 2025, were followed by losses over the next year. The full list is in the table above.
Why does miner capitulation matter for the price? Miners under pressure sell the bitcoin they mine, and sometimes their reserves, to pay for electricity and debt. When unprofitable miners have shut down and hashrate grows again, that forced selling tends to fade.