What this shows
Options markets tell you what traders expect and how they are positioned. The data is from Deribit, which handles most of the world's crypto options trading, and refreshes every six hours.
- DVOL is Deribit's volatility index, the crypto version of the VIX. It is the yearly move, in percent, priced into 30-day options. Dividing by about 3.5 turns it into the expected one-month move, shown in the cards above.
- Put/call ratio: open interest in puts (bets on or protection against a fall) divided by open interest in calls. Above 1, puts outnumber calls. We also show the same ratio for the last 24 hours of trading volume, which moves much faster.
- Max pain is the settlement price at which option holders, in total, would collect the least at a given expiry. It is widely watched before the large monthly and quarterly expiries on the last Friday of the month.
Does calm come before a big move?
A common saying is that low volatility precedes big moves. We split every day since 2021 into five equal groups by DVOL and measured how far Bitcoin moved over the next 30 days, in either direction.
The data does not support the saying. The calmest days were followed by somewhat smaller moves than average, and the most nervous days by the largest. Volatility has tended to persist rather than reverse. Low DVOL does make options cheap, which is why traders who expect a breakout buy them then, but on its own it has not predicted one.
Limits
- Max pain is a description of positioning, not a force. There is little evidence that prices are pulled toward it, except perhaps in the last hours before a large expiry.
- The put/call ratio mixes speculation and hedging. Many puts are insurance held by funds that own Bitcoin, so a high ratio is not simply bearish.
- DVOL history starts in 2021, which covers only part of one cycle. This is why options are not part of our market outlook score.
For positioning in perpetual futures, see funding rates.
FAQ
What is Bitcoin's implied volatility today? The current DVOL, how it compares with its history and the move it implies over 30 days are in the first row of cards above.
What is the Bitcoin max pain price? The max pain price for each upcoming expiry is in the tables above, next to its open interest and how far it is from the current price.
What is a good put/call ratio for Bitcoin? There is no fixed level, because puts are used both to bet on a fall and to insure holdings. Below 1 means more calls than puts are open. Watch how the ratio changes and how it differs between expiries, rather than comparing it with a threshold.
When do Bitcoin options expire? Deribit options expire at 08:00 UTC. There are daily and weekly expiries, but most open interest sits in the monthly and quarterly ones on the last Friday of the month.