What this shows
Stablecoins are tokens that track the US dollar: Tether (USDT), USD Coin (USDC) and dozens of smaller ones. They are how most money moves into, out of and around crypto. This page tracks the total supply of USD-pegged stablecoins, from DefiLlama, updated daily.
Traders often call this supply "dry powder": dollars already inside crypto that can be used to buy Bitcoin and other coins. When supply grows, new money is arriving. When it shrinks, holders are redeeming stablecoins for dollars and leaving.
The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) divides Bitcoin's market cap by total stablecoin supply. A lower SSR means stablecoins could buy a larger share of all Bitcoin, which is read as more potential buying power. Bitcoin's market cap here uses the exact number of coins issued on each date, calculated from the block height.
Does "dry powder" predict the price?
The idea sounds logical, so we tested it. For every day since 2020 we measured how much stablecoin supply grew over the previous 30 days and what Bitcoin did over the next 90 days, then grouped the days by growth: shrinking, slow, moderate and fast. (DefiLlama's records before 2020 are incomplete, so the test and the charts start there.)
What the table shows:
- Since 2020 the link looks mildly positive, but almost all of it comes from one episode: the 2020–2021 boom, when the stablecoin market grew about thirtyfold from a small base while Bitcoin rallied. Most of the fast-growth days fall in those two years.
- Since 2022 it disappears. The correlation turns slightly negative, the fastest supply growth was followed by weaker Bitcoin returns, and the days after supply shrank did better than average.
- The groups don't line up in order in either period. A real leading signal would show returns rising steadily with supply growth; this doesn't.
That fits how supply has moved. It grew fastest during the 2020–2021 and 2024–2025 bull markets and shrank through most of 2022 and 2023, including the collapse of the TerraUSD stablecoin in May 2022. Stablecoin supply mostly moves with the market cycle rather than ahead of it.
How to use it
- Read stablecoin supply as a gauge of how much capital is in crypto overall. A sustained decline means money is leaving the market, which is worth knowing even if it doesn't time the next move.
- Look at the trend over months, not individual days. Large issuances and redemptions by Tether or Circle can move the total by billions in a day.
- Watch the mix in the coin table: a shift between stablecoins (for example from USDT to USDC) is not the same as money leaving crypto.
For other views of the market, see the Fear & Greed Index and M2 money supply vs Bitcoin, which looks at the same liquidity question for the dollar as a whole.
FAQ
What is the total stablecoin market cap today? The current total supply of USD-pegged stablecoins and its 30-day change are in the headline and the first card above, updated daily from DefiLlama.
Does rising stablecoin supply mean Bitcoin will go up? Not reliably. Since 2020 the apparent link comes almost entirely from the 2020–2021 boom; since 2022, fast growth in stablecoin supply has been followed by weaker Bitcoin returns over the next 90 days, not stronger ones. Supply tends to grow during bull markets rather than before them.
What is the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR)? It is Bitcoin's market cap divided by the total supply of stablecoins. A low SSR means stablecoins are large relative to Bitcoin, so they could in theory buy a bigger share of it.
Which stablecoin is the largest? Tether (USDT), followed by USD Coin (USDC). Together they make up the large majority of the market; the table above shows the current shares.