What this shows
The Pi Cycle Top indicator compares two moving averages of the Bitcoin price: the 111-day average and twice the 350-day average. When the faster 111-day line rises above the doubled 350-day line, the indicator signals a likely cycle top. It is called "Pi" because 350 divided by 111 is about 3.15, close to π. The indicator was published by Philip Swift in 2019.
The idea: near a cycle top, price rises so fast that its short-term average runs far ahead of the long-term trend. Doubling the 350-day average sets the bar for how far "too far" is.
The headline number shows how close the 111-day average is to the trigger line: 100% means a signal.
The track record
The signal table above is the honest scorecard. On our data the indicator has fired four times:
- April 2013: within days of a local high, but Bitcoin went on to make a much bigger top in December 2013 and was more than 200% higher a year later.
- December 2013 and December 2017: within a day of the cycle tops. This is where the indicator earned its reputation.
- April 2021: one day before the April 2021 high. But the cycle peak came later, in November 2021, and the indicator didn't fire again.
- 2024–2025: no signal at all. Bitcoin peaked in October 2025 at about $125,000 while the 111-day average stayed well below the trigger line.
So the indicator caught the sharp, parabolic tops of 2013 and 2017 and missed the flatter, longer tops since. That pattern makes sense: the signal needs a blow-off rally, and as Bitcoin has grown, its rallies have become less extreme.
How to use it
- A signal has historically meant a frenzied market, worth taking seriously. But in recent cycles no signal has not meant no top.
- Watch the distance to the trigger line as a gauge of how overheated the trend is, not just the crossover.
- Pair it with valuation-style indicators such as the power law and the 200-week moving average.
FAQ
What is the Pi Cycle Top indicator? It is a signal based on two moving averages of the Bitcoin price: the 111-day average and twice the 350-day average. When the 111-day average crosses above the doubled 350-day average, the indicator calls a likely cycle top.
Has the Pi Cycle Top indicator triggered this cycle? No. The last signal was in April 2021. Bitcoin's October 2025 peak came without a signal. The current distance to the trigger is shown in the headline above.
How accurate is the Pi Cycle Top indicator? It fired within a few days of the 2013 and 2017 cycle tops, but it also fired early in April 2013 and April 2021, before larger peaks, and it gave no signal at all in the 2024–2025 cycle.
Why is it called Pi Cycle? Because the ratio of the two periods, 350 / 111, is about 3.153, close to the number π (3.14159).