Lead
MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor said the company could withstand an 80–90% decline in Bitcoin and continue operating, even as crypto markets pull back. Bitcoin is trading around $92,000, while MSTR shares are down more than 40% since Bitcoin’s October 6 all-time high. Analysts see a low probability that MicroStrategy will sell BTC to cover debt in the near term.
Key Developments
- Saylor’s resilience claims: In comments discussing market volatility, Saylor said he sees no reason for concern about recent declines, noting MicroStrategy could endure an 80–90% BTC drawdown and maintain operations.
- Bitcoin holdings and cost basis: MicroStrategy holds 649,870 BTC, acquired since 2020 for about $48.37 billion at an average price of $74,433 per BTC.
- Volatility outlook: Saylor said Bitcoin’s annual volatility has fallen from about 80% in 2020 to roughly 50% today, and he expects it to decline further to around 1.5x the S&P 500’s volatility. He also expects BTC’s long-term returns to exceed the S&P 500 by a similar 1.5x multiple.
- Capital strategy: Since Bitcoin’s October 6 peak, MSTR has fallen over 40%. The company continues raising capital to buy more BTC via multiple preferred share classes, and financed some fall purchases through new common stock issuance. Last week, Saylor pushed back on rumors of BTC sales, saying the firm bought new coins "every day" during the week.
- Analyst view: Some market analysts judge the probability of MicroStrategy selling BTC to service debt as low in the near term, and see the company’s current valuation as relatively attractive.
Market Context
- Price action: Bitcoin remains above $91,000 but recent charts show a downward trend from November 11–19, with BTC near $91,869 and an RSI around 37.9, indicating the market is approaching oversold territory. Traders remain cautious on a swift return to $100,000.
- MSTR vs. BTC correlation: A recent comparative chart titled “MicroStrategy’s NAV Shock: A Reminder That Timing Matters” shows BTC peaking near $130,000 while MSTR topped $940. Current readings are around BTC ~$92,000 and MSTR ~$307, underscoring timing risk and MSTR’s leveraged exposure to Bitcoin.
Regulatory and Policy Notes
- South Korea AML data: South Korea’s customs authority reported ₩114 trillion in illicit money laundering over the past five years, with 83% routed through cryptocurrencies.
Other Notable Headlines
- Ethereum security: Vitalik Buterin warned that quantum computers could potentially break Ethereum’s cryptography before the 2028 elections, urging the community to harden the network.
- BTC-backed municipal finance: The U.S. state of New Hampshire issued a $100 million municipal bond reportedly collateralized by Bitcoin held in custody with BitGo.
- Institutional expansion: Kraken raised $800 million to expand institutional blockchain adoption.
Market Movers (24h)
- Starknet (STRK): $0.2378 (+30.60%)
- MYX: $3.27 (+30.27%)
- AB: $0.007641 (+13.18%)
Outlook
Markets are focused on whether Bitcoin can defend the $91,000–$92,000 area and how MicroStrategy navigates funding amid elevated volatility. Regulatory scrutiny and institutional developments remain key catalysts as traders watch for signs of a momentum shift and potential support tests.