Lead
A widely traded prediction market indicates an almost certain outcome for Bitcoin: the probability that BTC will trade below $100,000 at least once before the end of 2025 has surged to over 99%. The market, which asks whether Bitcoin will dip below $100k before 2026, shows cumulative volume of 3,077,937 and carries an expiry of December 31, 2025.
"Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?"
Key Developments
- Probability above 99% that Bitcoin will be below $100,000 at least once before Dec. 31, 2025
- Cumulative volume: 3,077,937
- Expiry: December 31, 2025
- Trend: Odds climbed steadily from the summer, rising above 70% and accelerating to over 99% by early November
Market Context
The pricing reflects traders’ near-consensus that Bitcoin will remain under the six-figure threshold at some point before year-end 2025. The odds have strengthened from June to early November, mirroring broad market sentiment and current spot conditions.
Prediction markets like Polymarket aggregate crowd expectations into tradable probabilities, often moving quickly in response to price action, macro headlines, and liquidity shifts. In this case, the near-unanimous pricing suggests participants view a sub-$100k print as overwhelmingly likely within the timeframe.
Why It Matters
- Sentiment barometer: The market serves as a real-time gauge of expectations around the much-discussed $100,000 Bitcoin milestone.
- Risk framing: For traders and portfolio managers, the near-certain pricing provides a baseline for scenario planning and hedging strategies.
- Narrative check: The odds imply that, despite cyclical rallies and optimistic long-term narratives, a sustained move above $100k before 2026 is not the base case among prediction market participants.
Looking Ahead
The contract settles at the end of 2025, offering a continuous read on sentiment until then. Traders will watch spot volatility, liquidity, and macro catalysts that could shift probabilities, but for now the market is firmly priced for a sub-$100k outcome before the calendar flips to 2026.