Markets broadly expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at today’s FOMC meeting, with attention turning to Chair Jerome Powell’s guidance on the path of easing. Bitcoin consolidated near $113,000, holding above its 7‑day VWAP and maintaining a bullish structure as volatility ticked higher.
According to CME FedWatch data, traders place a 99.5% probability on a cut that would bring the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%. Powell is set to hold a press conference following the rate decision, where investors will look for cues on the pace and scope of further policy normalization.
In crypto markets, an analyst noted that Bitcoin is consolidating around $113,000 while staying above the 7‑day volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $111,600. Implied volatility has risen to 54%. The same analyst contrasted the current backdrop with a hypothetical 190% volatility regime, characterizing today’s setup as a pre‑breakout phase under such elevated conditions. For now, price action remains constructive, with BTC preserving a bullish market structure above short-term support.
U.S. equity futures were little changed on Wednesday ahead of the Fed decision. Traders are also bracing for a heavy slate of mega-cap tech earnings that could sway broader risk sentiment:
- Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft are due to report after Wednesday’s close
- Apple and Amazon follow on Thursday
Nvidia shares rose 1.7% in extended trading, extending a record-setting rally after the company announced partnerships with the U.S. government, Oracle, Uber, and Eli Lilly, among others. In Tuesday’s regular session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.34%, the S&P 500 rose 0.23%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.8%, with all three indices closing at new all-time highs. Risk concentration remained a theme: Nvidia alone accounted for more than 20 of the S&P 500’s roughly 30-point advance that day. Market breadth was notably weak, with some observers describing it as the most negative breadth on record for a session that also produced a new S&P 500 high.
Conclusion All eyes are on the FOMC decision and Powell’s press conference for direction on the pace of rate cuts. Combined with a pivotal week for mega-cap earnings, the outcome could set the tone for risk assets—including Bitcoin—into the next leg of Q4 trading.