Lead
Galaxy Digital has lowered its year-end 2025 price target for Bitcoin (BTC) to $120,000 from $185,000, citing a maturing market defined by dominant institutional flows and reduced volatility. While the firm remains long-term bullish, it flagged shifting market structure and recent deleveraging as near-term headwinds. Separately, JAN3 founder Samson Mow argued the bull market has not truly begun and predicted a possible Christmas rally.
Key Developments
- Revised target: Bitcoin year-end 2025 forecast cut to $120,000 (from $185,000)
- Rationale: Market “maturity,” institutional dominance via ETF flows, and lower volatility
- Analyst view: Headwinds from momentum deterioration and structural shifts, but prior highs by year-end remain possible
What Changed, According to Galaxy Digital
Galaxy Digital’s note, led by chief analyst Alex Thorn, highlights several constraints affecting the current cycle:
- Selling by large holders, weighing on upside momentum
- Reduced activity from corporations that hold bitcoin on balance sheets
- Capital rotation toward gold, equities, stablecoins, and the artificial intelligence sector
- Large-scale liquidations on October 10–11, which impaired liquidity and dented confidence
Thorn added that while institutional flows via ETFs continue to shape the market, retail participation has not returned to the scale seen in 2021. The firm also noted an absence of notable sovereign Bitcoin purchase announcements and limited interest from new public companies in establishing crypto reserves.
“Long term we are, of course, bullish,” Alex Thorn wrote on X.
Despite the downgrade, Galaxy Digital said the market structure remains stable. Price levels around $100,000 are seen as consistent with a bullish trend, and a retest of previous highs by year-end is still considered achievable.
A Contrasting View from Samson Mow
Providing a counterpoint, Samson Mow asserted that the bull market “hasn’t even started,” arguing the current price action is only marginally ahead of inflation. He said he is betting on a Christmas rally, and rejected the popular market-cycle framework, noting that if cycles held, the peak would fall in 2026, not now.
Market Outlook
The revised outlook underscores a market increasingly steered by institutional ETFs, tempered volatility, and selective risk appetite. Key variables to watch include the pace of ETF inflows, potential retail re-engagement, any sovereign or corporate treasury announcements, and whether liquidity improves following October’s deleveraging event.
Conclusion
Galaxy Digital’s downgrade to $120,000 for end-2025 reflects a more measured view of Bitcoin’s trajectory amid a maturing, institution-led market. While structural signals remain supportive and new highs are still on the table, near-term performance may hinge on liquidity rebuilding and a broader return of retail demand—factors that will shape the path into year-end and beyond.