Lead
Bitcoin's downturn deepened as analysts warned of a potential move toward $92,000, citing an unfilled CME futures gap and weakening market support. On-chain data shows short-term holders sold 28,600 BTC (about $2.98 billion) at a loss within 24 hours, intensifying selling pressure.
Key Developments
- Analysts flagged the risk of a slide to $92,000 due to an unfilled CME Group futures gap at that level.
- Market technicians noted that the BTC/USD pair has lost a key support zone that had held for weeks.
- Some traders see a likely retest of the October 11 lows near $102,000, with a potential move to the $100,000 round-number level if selling persists.
- According to on-chain analytics, 28,600 BTC were sold at a loss in the last day by short-term holders, signaling capitulation among recent buyers.
Technical Picture
Market charts indicate:
- Immediate resistance clustered around $117,000–$119,000.
- Support levels identified near $105,300 and $102,200.
- Bitcoin recently traded around $106,200 on major spot markets.
The loss of key support and the proximity to the $102,000 area raises the probability of a liquidity sweep toward $100,000, while the highlighted CME gap near $92,000 remains a downside magnet if momentum accelerates.
On-Chain Signals
- Data from CryptoQuant shows short-term holders sent 28,600 BTC to exchanges at a loss over 24 hours (about $2.98 billion), a sign of stress among recent entrants.
- Glassnode’s assessment indicates recent buyers are increasingly underwater, amplifying supply-side pressure as losses get realized.
Elevated realized losses typically coincide with heightened volatility and can precede either capitulation wicks or reflexive rebounds, depending on spot demand.
Market Impact
The imbalance between forced selling and limited buying appetite has weighed on price. Absent a strong influx of demand, analysts caution that the path of least resistance could test $102,000–$100,000, with the $92,000 CME gap a potential target if conditions worsen.
Outlook
Traders are watching whether Bitcoin can reclaim the $117,000–$119,000 resistance band to neutralize the bearish structure. Until then, elevated realized losses among short-term holders and a soft bid environment keep downside risks in focus.