Lead
Bitcoin’s momentum has flipped back to a fully negative reading after a brief positive spark, a setup that often precedes a market bottom, according to analytics firm Swissblock. The shift coincides with a return to the yearly opening level near $93,500, a key line in the sand highlighted by the firm’s latest momentum dashboard.
"After the first positive spark, momentum recovered again, and the move shifted fully into the negative zone. This is usually the phase before a bottom forms. The trigger was a return to the yearly opening mark at $93.5K."
Key Developments
- Momentum reset in December: Swissblock’s chart indicates a fresh reset of momentum into December following volatile swings throughout the year.
- Critical level: $93,500: The analysis underscores the yearly open as a pivotal reference point for trend conviction.
- Oscillation pattern: Positive momentum peaked around February, May, and August, while negative momentum dominated in March, July, and November.
Technical Picture
Swissblock’s framework shows Bitcoin’s price oscillating alongside two momentum regimes—positive (blue) and negative (red)—with the latest data tilting decisively negative. Historically, the firm notes such transitions often occur in the late phase of downswings when markets prepare to base.
- The price scale in the analysis spans roughly $60,000 to $120,000, with the $93,500 marker emphasized as “the key.”
- A “momentum reset” annotation appears in December, suggesting a potential inflection window if selling pressure exhausts near the yearly open.
What to Watch
- Holding $93.5K: Sustained support around the yearly open could allow price to stabilize and build a base.
- Follow-through on momentum: A swift recovery back into positive momentum would strengthen the case for a local bottom.
- Breaks and invalidation: A decisive failure below the $93,500 region could extend the negative regime and delay any bottoming process.
Conclusion
Swissblock’s read of Bitcoin’s momentum—freshly negative at a key yearly pivot—frames a classic bottoming setup, but confirmation hinges on how price behaves around $93,500 in the days ahead. Traders will be watching for stabilization signals and a potential rebound in momentum to validate the bottoming narrative.