Lead
A market report dated November 14, 2025 highlights key signals in Bitcoin’s ongoing mini-bear phase. A chart covering August 2024 to November 2025 shows the Bitcoin Trend Model peaking near 163,840 in July 2025 before easing to roughly 100,000 by November 2025, while the Spread with Bitcoin similarly peaked around 20,000 mid-year and trended lower into the autumn.
Key Developments
- The study tracks two metrics over time: the Bitcoin Trend Model (left-hand scale) and the Spread with Bitcoin (right-hand scale).
- The Trend Model rose into mid-2025, topping out near 163,840 in July 2025, then declined to about 100,000 by November 2025.
- The Spread with Bitcoin followed a broadly parallel path, peaking around 20,000 in July 2025 and easing to lower levels toward year-end.
What the chart shows
The visual analysis focuses on “Signals to Watch in Bitcoin’s Mini-Bear Market,” comparing directional shifts in a trend model versus the spread metric. Both lines advanced into mid-2025 and have since moved lower, signaling a cooling phase after the summer peak. The synchronized rise-and-fade pattern suggests the pullback has been gradual rather than abrupt, aligning with a mini-bear characterization rather than a full-scale bear market breakdown.
Market Context
- The timeframe spans August 2024–November 2025, capturing Bitcoin’s mid-cycle momentum into July 2025 followed by a multi-month retracement.
- The concurrent decline in both the trend model and spread underscores waning momentum after the mid-year highs, a common feature in consolidation phases.
Looking Ahead
While the report does not provide price targets, the observed trajectory—lower highs in the Trend Model and a softer Spread with Bitcoin—points to a continued period of consolidation. Market participants may monitor whether these indicators stabilize or re-accelerate as signals for renewed directional conviction.